Population effectiveness models are a relatively new concept, although the paradigm for constructing them has been around as long as health economics modeling. This model simulates relevant clinical outcomes for a population of patients with the disease of interest. The model incorporates many of the model-building techniques used in Markov-based and Monte Carlo-based cost-effectiveness models.
In general, these models are designed to estimate the population effects of the intervention of interest, compared to those from the current standard of care. The outcomes from these models are generally clinical endpoints (e.g., fractures prevented, recurrences avoided, etc.) and can include both positive and negative outcomes. In this way, they can be adapted very easily to make quantitative risk-benefit assessments.
Examples of several of these models are linked below.